Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 111.309241 127.515943 145.799624 168.060385 194.573070 225.314551 263.911558
2026-01-04 92.541817 113.778088 139.910234 174.832272 220.887716 280.418134 364.629690
2026-01-11 80.615965 104.354162 135.502565 180.184679 244.013624 334.107124 475.007620
2026-01-18 71.311776 96.092040 130.296203 182.245333 261.514559 382.067646 587.921497
2026-01-25 63.715515 88.724967 124.719700 182.078681 274.699058 425.091091 703.112326
2026-02-01 56.740286 81.169751 117.565606 177.948271 280.273932 456.169678 805.212561
2026-02-08 51.004860 74.688515 111.052575 173.568909 284.197608 484.520245 909.230674
2026-02-15 46.330343 69.269601 105.454866 169.704651 288.015343 512.913646 1020.815565
2026-02-22 44.978874 68.901846 107.854828 179.723835 318.565582 598.696815 1283.569387
2026-03-01 42.329290 66.117555 105.854673 181.502061 333.559892 656.149035 1500.736757
2026-03-08 40.098769 63.794775 104.350104 183.907449 350.106161 720.591972 1760.002613
2026-03-15 37.729796 61.002839 101.697135 183.692292 361.042204 774.728044 2012.955526
2026-03-22 36.964350 61.020564 104.267490 194.509948 398.897203 905.696570 2564.636738
2026-03-29 35.869506 60.344852 105.477698 202.759490 432.834831 1037.725841 3200.478777
2026-04-05 34.635087 59.287446 105.823165 209.202273 463.885945 1172.213160 3935.785463
2026-04-12 33.075310 57.472304 104.471435 211.679157 485.538924 1286.865423 4677.035933
2026-04-19 31.388484 55.266159 102.099472 211.480865 500.176225 1385.133138 5425.318352
2026-04-26 29.406829 52.328263 97.941507 206.531942 500.909878 1438.788200 6006.473285
2026-05-03 27.576263 49.552600 93.874885 201.289321 499.885123 1486.730102 6603.897776
2026-05-10 25.959544 47.086416 90.247840 196.667521 499.830161 1538.660120 7276.311058
2026-05-17 25.820594 47.595850 93.083648 208.659035 552.412776 1809.086261 9605.850445
2026-05-24 24.909790 46.443857 92.145267 210.790058 574.883522 1971.053256 11437.181594
2026-05-31 24.113580 45.471501 91.519342 213.673959 600.611716 2159.177151 13768.758427